NFL Week 12
Last Week: 9-6-1 (7-8-1 o/u)
Season: 87-69-4 (84-67-3)
Indianapolis (-10/54) at Detroit - Lions and the over
Chicago at Dallas (-3.5/35.5) - Cowboys and the over
Baltimore at New England (-7/36) - Patriots and the over
Philadelphia (-7/37.5) at NY Giants - Eagles and the over
Washington at Pittsburgh (-11/35.5) - Redskins and the over
Cleveland at Cincinnati (-6/38) - Bengals and the under
Jacksonville at Minnesota (-6/46.5) - Vikings and the under
Tampa Bay (-2.5/39) at Carolina - Bucs and the over
San Diego at Kansas City (-3/51.5) - Chiefs and the over
Tennessee (-1.5/43) at Houston - Texans and the under
New Orleans at Atlanta (-10/46) - Saints and the over
NY Jets (-3/36) at Arizona - Jets and the under
Buffalo at Seattle (-5.5/38) - Seahawks and the over
Miami at San Francisco (-1/38.5) - Dolphins and the under
Oakland at Denver (-11/45) - Raiders and the under
St. Louis at Green Bay (-6/52) - Packers and the under
:: Ryan 1:24 PM
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NBA Preview 04-05
Don't Buy Diesel Just Yet
Sure, it's the sexy pick. And it makes perfect sense. The most dominant player of this generation is upset. Hell, he's downright pissed. Shaquille O'Neal has a beef with Kobe Bryant, Dr. Jerry Buss and everyone else who rode him last season for being out of shape and/or the reason the Lakers couldn't beat the East. He's in shape and ready to take Miami by storm.
I remember hearing this all before. Shaq would finally stop using the regular season as his training camp. He and Kobe would once again put their differences aside to dominate like they had done so many times before. The rest of the team? As long as they are solid and let the two stars do their work, they will walk into another title.
This time around, the part of Kobe is being played by budding superstar Dwayne Wade. The rest of the story looks and sounds the same except that outside of Wade, there isn't much in the way of a supporting cast. The roles of Karl Malone and Gary Payton are being played by the immortal Eddie Jones and Udonis Haslem. Rick Fox will now be played by Wesley Person. We are told this shouldn't matter, because the East is devoid of any legitimate big men. Did I miss something? Besides Tim Duncan and Yao, was there anyone in the west that was ever able to guard Shaq? It's not as if he's leaving the ACC and entering the Patriot League.
Last year the Heat snuck up on teams all year long. They sent the Hornets home in the first round of the playoffs and put a good scare into the Pacers. Much like the Lakers many of us grew to hate, this Heat team will never catch a team sleeping. Fans will be showing up on the road to see their team take down Shaq and Company all season long. If there is a prolonged losing streak, how long before the media starts asking Wade if he is getting the ball to the big man enough. More importantly, how long before Shaq goes through the media to tell Wade to get the rock to him down low.
Don't get me wrong, I'm not questioning the trade for Shaq. Whenever you can get one of the best players in the game without giving up your best player, you do it. And I do believe Miami has a better shot at a title now than they did with Odom, Butler and Grant. But until I see this team fire on all cylinders I'm just not ready to fill my bandwagon up with Diesel.
Eastern Conference
* In order of predicted finish*
1. Detroit Pistons - Okay, lets get this straight. After destroying the Shaq-Kobe Express in the NBA Finals, the Pistons lose.... Mike James, Corliss Williamson and Mehmet Okur? Good thing for the rest of the league they didn't add anyone. Oh, wait. Antonio McDyess, Derrick Coleman and their
other first round pick from last season, Carlos Delfino, all enter the fold this season. Larry Brown and Joe Dumars basically traded a backup point in James for a multi-position stud in Delfino and two players he didn't have many minutes for (Okur and Williamson) for two former All Star caliber players in McDyess and Coleman. And don't sleep on the NBA's youngest player in 2003-2004, Darko Milicic. Incredible.
Season Outlook: For the defending Champs, anything but a return trip to the finals is a disappointment.
2. Indiana Pacers - Their spot here doesn't show it, but I really don't like the Pacers one bit. I believe they'll end up here, but once again they will falter when it counts. Jermaine O'Neal is one of the best players in the league, but after having to do the dirty work for this team all year, he just isn't capable of carrying them through the playoffs. Larry Bird failed to bring in a legitimate low post option to help O'Neal out, instead hoping a soft David Harrison will find a way to produce at this level. Add the constant worrying by players and coaches alike that Ron Artest will body slam a fan sitting courtside, and this team doesn't have the makeup to scare too many people in the playoffs.
Season Outlook: They'll walk into the playoffs. After that, it all depends on how worn down Jermaine is from carrying the team on his back. My bet is Carlisle is on the sidelines for the Conference Finals... As an analyst.
3. Miami Heat - There are three factors when it comes to the Heat's championship aspirations: Shaq, Shaq and Shaq. If they are truly going to jump on the big man's back, he needs to stay healthy. Dwayne Wade can turn into the superstar we all know he will be, but without Shaq, this is a lottery team. Losing Rafer Alston will hurt more than people realize, unless their prep school rookie, Dorrell Wright, can adjust to the league quickly.
Season Outlook: Pat Riley brought Shaq in to win a championship. Period. The people of Miami won't complain if they lose to Detroit in the Conference Finals, but anything less should be considered a failure.
4. Cleveland Cavaliers - From lottery team to the top of the conference? When you build your team around one of the best players on the planet, things like this are bound to happen. Carlos Boozer was a monster down low last year, but with Jeff McInnis and the newly acquired Eric Snow running alongside LBJ, Drew Gooden will make fans forget all about Booz.
Season Outlook: This team will go as far as LeBron will take them. As usual with the King, the sky is the limit.
5. New York Knicks - $108 million doesn't buy what it used to. Isaih Thomas wanted Kobe Bryant and/or Erick Dampier. Instead he got Jamal Crawford and Jerome Williams. Not exactly the names that make you think championship. However, being the best team in a bad division will give the Knicks and their fans hope. If Marbury and Crawford can co-exist, this team will light up the scoreboard every night. Lenny Wilkens wishes he had better defenders, but if these guys click, they could out score a lot of teams.
Season Outlook: The Atlantic Division champs will get a nice seed and finally have New York fans excited again, but the lack of any interior toughness will haunt them when it matters most.
6. Washington Wizards - It's put up or shut up time for Eddie Jordan. When he left New Jersey as the true genius behind their high powered offense, everyone predicted he would turn around the Wizards almost immediately. After a failed season, Jordan needs to show the fans of DC what he can do. A healthy duo of Larry Hughes and Gilbert Arenas are now joined by Antawn Jamison who no longer has to play 'spark plug', the way he did last season in Dallas. Those three, along with a determined (read: contract year) Kwame Brown should give Jordan what he needs to finally make his offense click.
Season Outlook: If Jordan is as good as everyone has been telling him he is, this team should have no trouble locking up a playoff spot. If everyone stays healthy, they could be primed to upset a team in the first round.
7. Orlando Magic - Last season I was the first one to jump on the Magic bandwagon. And, well, I think we all know how that ended up. This season, once again I think they will be better than most people are predicting, but I'm not about to pick them top 5 in the East again. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. If Grant Hill's ankle can stay in once piece, he has a chance to be the glue that holds this team together. Hill will never have the same quickness or explosion he once had, but his presence on the floor would be invaluable for Steve Francis and rookie Dwight Howard.
Season Outlook: Same story since they threw all that money at Hill and McGrady. A healthy Hill will most likely mean a trip to the playoffs. Another injury likely means the end of his career and their postseason hopes.
8. New Jersey Nets - No, this team will not finish behind the Bobcats or anywhere in the Atlanta section of the lottery, despite what people in the media would like you to believe. Maybe I missed the memo, but when did Kenyon Martin and Kerry Kittles become Shaq and Kobe? A healthy Jason Kidd will keep this team competitive all season. Because he'll either help lead them to victory or fetch a couple players that can help in a trade. You won't see them blow out teams like they used to, but the wins will come and both Net fans will be there to celebrate.
Season Outlook: If Kidd cannot play this season, then forget everything about not finishing in the Atlanta section of the lottery. Otherwise this team will be in the running for the final playoff spot until the very end.
9. Philadelphia 76ers - This team continues to confuse me. I swear I saw a Philly team with Allen Iverson -- and not much else -- get to the NBA finals just a few years ago. Basically that same team -- AI and not much else -- has been a disaster the past two seasons. How can I put a team in the playoffs when Glenn Robinson and Samuel Dalembert are sent to the bench by the immortal Aaron McKie and Marc Jackson? Andre Iguodala has the chance to finally give AI a versatile wingman, which could help take some of the pressure off. But the question always remains: Will Allen ever actually pass the ball?
Season Outlook: If Dalembert can find his way back into the starting rotation, Iguodala turns in a ROY performance and AI stays healthy then they could grab one of the final playoff spots. Give Jim O'Brien a couple more years to put his stamp on the squad before you point the blame his way.
10. Chicago Bulls - Every year it's the same story: The Bulls are going to be the surprise team of the NBA! And every year PMJ (Post MJ) they fall flat on their face. Once again: Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me four times, shame on me. The young talent is still there from last season in Tyson Chandler, Eddy Curry, Kirk Hinrich. Plus the additions of Luol Deng, Ben Gordon and Andres Nocioni. There's more talent here than Philly. But this is the Bulls, remember?
Season Outlook: On paper, this team walks into the playoffs. As Chicago fans know by now, paper doesn't extend your season. I'll believe it when I see it.
11. Toronto Raptors - I'm sick and tired of listening to Vince Carter bitch and moan. Karl Malone and Gary Payton wanted to play for a winner last season to wrap up their career. Ever since, stars all over the league are playing the same card. The only problem is that players like Vince are supposed to put their team over the top, not try to find a team where they can be contributors to a winner. If he shut his mouth and look around he might see this team has some pretty solid players. Chris Bosh showed flashes of brilliance last season and with Rafael Araujo in the fold, he doesn't have to take all the beatings down low. Rafer Alston showed last year in Miami he can be trusted with a playoff run and Jalen Rose will find the basket if Carter has better shot selection than he did last season.
Season Outlook: If Carter gets hurt or traded, then it's back to the lottery. If he shuts his mouth and plays hard, then this team has a real shot to steal the 8th seed.
12. Boston Celtics - The good news for Celtics fans is that the new Atlantic Division in which they reside is super weak. The bad news is that they're one of the main reasons why. Boston is the East's "if" team. If... Raef LaFrentz can stay healthy, Gary Payton can play nice, Jiri Welsch refines his game and Mark Blount produces up to his new contract than this team can snag one of the final playoff spots. If not, then this is being optimistic.
Season Outlook: Doc Rivers is the best man for this job. But he'll need at least a couple years to weed out the players that won't work in his system.
13. Milwaukee Bucks - Be honest, you thought the Bucks were lottery bound last season too. I had them buried before the season even started and then it turned out this kid TJ Ford could not only play, but was one of the quickest guards in the league. Then he suffered a spinal injury last season and hasn't recovered yet. Ford made this team go last year and they looked lost without him down the stretch. Expect their tumble to continue unless somehow Ford finds his way back to the court this season.
Season Outlook: A car can't go without the engine. TJ Ford was this team's engine. Hopefully for Bucks fans, he makes it back for next season and they pick up a nice lottery pick to play next to him next season.
14. Atlanta Hawks - If you know what the new owners of the Hawks are doing, you're a better person than I am. Trading for Al Harrington was a no brainer and at least Antoine Walker will help them clear cap space and put some points on the board for a year. After that there isn't much to be excited about. They drafted people who essentially play the same position and Jason Collier is their center. Yes, that Jason Collier. There will be plenty of cap space to go around next season, but will anyone want to take it?
Season Outlook: Go Mike Vick, Go!
15. Charlotte Bobcats - There's zero pressure to win and they know it. Some people would see a 15 win season as a disappointment, but they have a two year 'honeymoon' period that they are going to take full advantage of. If things go as planned, in two years they'll have three top picks in the draft (including Okafor) along with all kinds of cap room to sign a big name as the final piece of the puzzle.
Season Outlook: Aren't those uniforms cute?
Western Conference
1. San Antonio Spurs - This team almost seems too good to be true. They have the best player in the league -- who no longer has to worry about Shaq -- and have equipped him with one of the best long range shooters in Brent Barry to go along with Tony Parker and Manu Ginobli. On any given night, any of those three can drop 30 on a team just from kick outs by Duncan. If Rasho Nesterovic can stay on the floor at center, Duncan will have a chance to avoid a lot of the punishment he had to take last season.
Season Outlook: Outside of an injury to Duncan, there is nothing stopping this team from another title.
2. Minnesota Timberwolves - Flip and the boys bring back the same crew that made a run at the title last year. The problem this year is Sprewell is running his mouth about wanting out because of his contract and Szczerbiak is evidently at odds with just about the entire team. Remember Michael Olowokandi? Someone told me he played for the Wolves last season. Hmm, who knew? If he decides to show up, then they might be able to get past Spree's sour puss.
Season Outlook: They gambled by not bringing in a big body to help out KG in the post, but after the way they played last year, it's hard to give them too much grief about it. Getting out of the first round will no longer be considered a good season. Anything short of the NBA Finals will certainly be looked down on.
3. Dallas Mavericks - Don't look now, Mavs fans, but you might have found a long term replacement for Steve Nash sooner than expected. Most rookies would be scared out of their sneakers if they were asked to run this high powered Dallas offense. Instead, Harris has thrived and pushed Jason Terry to the bench. There are going to be bumps in the road -- as there are with all rookies -- but not having the pressure of needing to score will help him in the transition to the pro game. Just as important to this team as Harris' production is how Erick Dampier will respond to his fat new contract. Can he stay healthy and continue to dominate the boards? If he fails to do either of those two, then the Mavs are back to being a team that scores 110 points a game but give up 112 when it counts.
Season Outlook: A healthy Dampier finally gives them the toughness they've been lacking and a ticket to the NBA Finals could be closer than ever.
4. Sacramento Kings - This is a team on the brink. A brink of what, I'm not quite sure yet. With Peja Stojakovic and Chris Webber still refusing to play nice, it's hard to say if the Kings can still be considered title contenders. Webber's presence will also effect Brad Miller's numbers. When Webber was out last season, Miller stepped up and showed toughness in the post that is completely foreign to CWebb. Will these two be able to co-exist for an entire season? The Kings also need Greg Ostertag's game to somewhat resemble Vlade Divac's. Don't sleep on Kevin Martin, either, who has been able to find the basket at every level he's ever played.
Season Outlook: If everything goes well, the Kings could have one more shot at a title. But if Peja or CWebb are traded, this team could quickly go the other direction.
5. Utah Jazz - After being picked by most -- myself included -- to finish with the worst record in the league last season, all Jerry Sloan did was lead the Jazz to the brink of a playoff birth. This year, with the additions of Carlos Boozer and Mehmet Okur, expectations have never been higher. How will the Jazz perform without that extremely large chip on their shoulder? They certainly won't be sneaking up on anyone this time around. If anyone can keep this team hungry, Jerry Sloan can.
Season Outlook: Another team on paper that should walk into the playoffs. In the ultra-competitive West, however, all bets are off once you get past the top 3 teams.
6. Houston Rockets - This team is setup for disaster. Not only do they now have the best center in the West, but they've paired him with one of the most electric players in Tracy McGrady. It's certainly time for T-Mac to put up or shut up. After all his complaining about losing, he absolutely has to keep his mouth shut when the offense is run through Yao. The one thing that would worry me the most if I were a Rockets fan is Charlie Ward as my starting point guard. I know Jeff Van Gundy loves the guy, but is he really someone you can trust during a playoff run? If they make the playoffs, it's expected. If they don't, the whole organization is going to get roasted.
Season Outlook: It's hard to imagine the combo of Yao and T-Mac won't make the playoffs, but it won't be easy.
7. Denver Nuggets - I need to send people my updated email address, because I keep missing all these memos. For example, the one that anointed the Nuggets the toast of the West. Kenyon Martin obviously helps the front line, but does anyone really believe Marcus Camby is going to repeat what he did last season? He was playing for a contract, got said contract and now can go back to missing half of the season due to various injuries. Carmelo Anthony needs to keep his off the court problems to a minimum or Denver will have much bigger problems than a hobbled Camby.
Season Outlook: It'll be a bigger fight for a playoff spot than most people are anticipating. With such a young core, however, missing out isn't the end of the world.
8. Phoenix Suns - Quite possibly the most athletic team in the league, the Suns are ready to take on the West. Last season they were optimistic, but the season quickly went down the drain and seemed to get worse when Stephon Marbury was traded to the Knicks. The new owners, however, were able to rebound (no pun, I swear) by bringing in Steve Nash and Quentin Richardson. With those two moves, the Suns quickly went from rebuilding to contender. The only major flaw on this team is at center where Jake Voskuhl is much better suited as a 6th man.
Season Outlook: As with most teams in the West, the Suns are a team that could finish as high as 5th or miss the playoffs altogether.
9. Memphis Grizzlies - Classic overachievers, the Grizzlies couldn't find a way to beat anyone in the West consistently and there aren't any signs that things will change this year. I love the energy that Brian Cardinal brings to the floor, but is he really a game breaking type of player that puts a team over the top? The depth that made this team so dangerous last year is still there, but the firepower needed to truly compete in the West just isn't there.
Season Outlook: If anyone can push this team above the others fighting for the last few playoff spots, Hubie Brown can.
10. Los Angeles Lakers - Okay, Kobe. We get it. You're the man and the Lakers are your team. I hope you understand that it's all on you now. When Tim Duncan drops 40 points on your team, Vlade Divac and Chris Mihm aren't going to catch the heat. You are. When Kevin Garnett dominates your team all season long, Lamar Odom isn't the one that will be blamed. You are. So what it comes down to is you are going to have to make the playoffs with the same players that barely made the cut last season in the East. Good luck.
Season Outlook: If the Lakers are a playoff team, Kobe wins the MVP. And if they aren't, it's time for Dr. Buss to shop for a center.
11. Portland Trailblazers - Zach Randolph is really going to have to earn his big extension if the Blazers plan to avoid the lottery. A season of Theo Ratliff in the lane will help on the defensive end, but in order for the team to be more effective on the defensive end, the rest of the players need to step up the effort. Trading Shareef Abdur-Rahim (for Jason Kidd?) would certainly help the cause, but until that happens I can't see them making any noise.
Season Outlook: Until there are more changes, the Blazers are still lottery bound.
12. New Orleans Hornets - Byron Scott got a raw deal in New Jersey and he's ready to show the NBA world that he is the real deal. Unfortunately he picked the wrong team, which is now in the wrong conference. A team that struggled in the East and then was moved to the West isn't the ideal place to try and rebuild your image. Baron Davis is a franchise player that can fit perfectly into Scott's system, but the fact that he's openly talked about a trade isn't going to help his relationship with Byron. Jamaal Magloire came into his own last season, but will no longer be matched up against power forwards. The wild card here is rookie J.R. Smith who is being touted as Vince Carter with a jump shot.
Season Outlook: Scott is a good coach, but it would look like it to the fans when the Hornets are picking in the lottery next June.
13. Los Angeles Clippers - The Clips and the Bulls are looking more and more like the same team. Tons of talent with no results. Elton Brand is one of the best power forwards in the league and Corey Maggette is quickly turning into a star. Unfortunately, until Shaun Livingston is ready for the pro game, there isn't anyone to run the show. Meaning they will continue to look like an AAU team, taking shots at will and never looking at an open teammate. Mike Dunleavy must be wondering why the hell he took this job.
Season Outlook: C'mon, it's the Clippers! I wonder who they'll send to the draft lottery?
14. Golden State Warriors - I'm starting to think the Warriors and the Clippers are the same team. I won't believe otherwise until I see them play each other for the first time. Seriously though, will this team every win? Chris Mullin just shelled out a whole lot of money to extend two players -- Troy Murphy and Jason Richardson -- who have been the core of a losing team. Huh? And I refuse to even mention the awful contract Adonal Foyle got over the summer. Keep an eye on Mickael Pietrus and Andris Biedrins, two international players who could give this squad a spark.
Season Outlook: You think they'll take someone from Stanford in the draft?
15. Seattle Supersonics - Ugh. Nick Collison and Jerome James in the post? At least they can bring in the unstoppable Danny Fortson off the bench. Yikes. Ummm... Ray Allen is good! But he might be traded. That's about it.
Season Outlook: Go Seahawks!
Best Record: Detroit Pistons
Worst Record: Charlotte Bobcats
Eastern Finals: Detroit over Miami
Western Finals: Spurs over Timberwolves
NBA Finals: Pistons over Spurs
Individual Awards
Most Valuable Player: Tim Duncan
Rookie of the Year: Dwight Howard
Sixth Man of the Year: Brent Barry
Defensive Player of the Year: Andrei Kirilenko
Most Improved Player: Gerald Wallace
Coach of the Year: Paul Silas
Executive of the Year: John Weisbrod
:: Ryan 7:24 PM
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